Coloradoan Winter - your source for winter fun, ski-reports

November 25, 2001
Avalanche expert: Weak snowpack and lack of knowledge lead to disaster
By Miles Blumhardt
MilesBlumhardt@coloradoan.com
    Someone will die in an avalanche in Colorado this year.
    That's not fatalistic, it's realistic.
    The last time nobody died in an avalanche

in Colorado was in 1968, well before anyone heard of a snowboard. Fat chance that'll happen again.
    Last year was pretty typical - four fatalities (Colorado's average is five). The casualties occurred while they were either snowmobiling, backcountry skiing or snowboarding, three were male and one was female and all were forewarned.
    Chances are great you won't die in an avalanche. But tell that to these four.
    Even if you become avalanche aware, it won't do you a bit of good if you don't use good judgment in the backcountry. Ask those four. I bet their friends and family wish you could.
    Knox Williams is a Colorado State University atmospheric science graduate, Fort Collins resident and director of the Colorado Avalanche Information Center. The 58-year-old has been involved with avalanche analysis for 31 years, including the past 18 years as director of the country's oldest avalanche center.
    What is your budget and where does the money come from?
    We're

WILLIAMS

hoping for a budget of $535,000. We've been getting about $257,000 from the Colorado Department of Transportation, $116,000 from a severance tax on the mining industry, $35,000 from the ski industry, $30,000 from Friends of the Avalanche Center, $24,000 from the U.S. Forest Service and $20,000 through our education programs. We'll see where we'll get the rest from.
    How many people in Colorado will die from avalanches this year?
    Five. It's the right in the middle of what we've been seeing, so that's why I came up with that number.
    When will most die?
    In January and February. Historically those two months cause the most problems. The reason is the first two months of winter, November and December, are spent building snowpack. It's pretty weak and shallow, and few people are out because the terrain is too rocky, By January and February, you finally get a deep enough snow cover for good quality skiing, but this snow is building on top of a weak base and people serve as the trigger.
    Why do we go from not having a fatality on Diamond Peak for many years then have one each in 1999 and 2000?
    First, the use is going up, and secondly, the type of person who is using the Cameron Pass area, especially Diamond Peak, has changed. We have more snowboarders and a younger bunch of users up there, and these people are getting on the face at times of the year that were never touched 10 years ago because people felt it was too dangerous. After almost every storm, you see tracks on Diamond's face, and that sight will continue and that will continue to kill people who use it during those times.
    Would you ski the face of Diamond before May?
    A lot of people say don't ski Diamond until May, but then there is a world of others who don't say that and they are the ones who are actually there. I've done it, but it's not a place I frequent. It's dangerous. I don't think I'm smart enough to make the right decisions on snowpack stability up there throughout most of the winter.
    If you're not smart enough, then who is?
    Maybe people who are up there all the time. Maybe they know something I don't. After all, they have made 100 or several hundred safe descents. I've made maybe four. I have a feeling they are rolling

the dice on this one, and I don't like their odds going very far into the future. It loads with every storm and produces big avalanches.
    Do people really understand the power of an avalanche?
    I think not. I don't know that that's really on people's mind. They have spent so many successful days in the backcountry that they start thinking avalanches happen so infrequently that they don't have to worry about avalanches. Last year, we had more than 110 people caught. That's a record. Only four people died. That's a pretty remarkable spread. It shows that most survive, but not because they were good but because they were lucky. Once this stuff starts carrying you down the mountainside and you've lost control, luck is what will save your life.
    Last year's fatalities in Colorado were a snowmobiler, snowboarder and two backcountry skiers. What does this tell us?
    Nobody is immune. It's an equal opportunity killer, I guess.
    Do you see any trends?
    We've seen such a growth in backcountry snowboarding and snowmobiling the last five years that those two groups are very likely going to be right at the top of those being injured and killed by avalanches.
    So are snowboarders living up to their extreme reputation?
    It's a sport made up of numbers of young people. They are amazing, and I applaud them because in the backcountry you get to know a little bit more of yourself. But you can't just push your athletic ability; you gotta get some knowledge and know when you should be there and where you should be.
    We're talking the testosterone?
    You got it. Most people can snowboard stuff that skiers can't and so they are going more places. We also are seeing more snowboarders in our classes. But I think what we'll see is a greater percentage of snowboarders being killed in the backcountry than skiers because they are exposing themselves in greater numbers.
    What's the most prominent avalanche myth?
    A lot of people don't say it but they think it can't happen to them. A lot of people get very surprised when they get caught.
    Have you ever been caught in an avalanche?
    Just two teeny, tiny ones in my early days. But I have had a large one break off at the tip of my skis. It was large enough to break trees a foot in diameter. It was scary.
    How do people die in an avalanche?
    Suffocation kills two out of three. We think trauma and the forces involved make up the other one-third. My feeling is that even though people may die from suffocation that the forces are so great that it takes away their ability to try and swim to stay on top of the snow.
    Why does Colorado lead the nation (on average) in avalanche fatalities?
    We have the weakest snow cover day in and day out than any other state. A weak snow cover is more prone to collapse.
    Do you have a favorite avalanche book?
    A great one that just hit the market is by Bruce Tremper from Utah called "Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain" (The Mountaineers). It's easy to read and right on target with what people need to know. It deals heavily in the human factors and what gets people in trouble in the first place.
    Best beacon?
    I think the Tracker made by Backcountry Access is the best one on the market. There will be a lot of people who would argue violently about that. Ortovox makes an outstanding beacon. But what I have seen in teaching people how to use beacons is the Tracker is so intuitive that there is no mystery how it works.
    Do beacons save time?
    They save time; they don't save lives. The sad statistic since beacons have been out 30-some odd years is that 60 percent of people found by beacons are found dead. It doesn't matter any difference if you find them in a couple of minutes if they have hit a tree. You can throw out the window of 20 to 30 minutes of survivability time. That's not really accurate.
    How much time do you have?
    You have five to 10 minutes, that's it. What we have discovered is that pinpointing where the person is buried may be the fast part of it. Getting to them is another matter. We teach that you are a competent user of your beacon if you can cover a football-size field of avalanche debris and pinpoint where someone is buried in five minutes or less. But five minutes may already be too late because if you're buried 4 to 5 feet deep, it will take you another 10 to 15 minutes to dig them out.
    Any promising products coming out to help save lives?
    We have something coming on the market, an air bag that I think will be helpful. If I were to have one piece of safety equipment, it would be an air bag, not a beacon. I would never not wear a beacon because, who knows, it may save my life. But we know that technology doesn't save people, people save people.
    What is this air bag?
    It has been used for three years in Europe, but there has been a problem bringing it to the U.S. because of the way it inflates with its nitrogen cartridges. It is a small pack

in a vest, and you pull a ripcord and it inflates, allowing you to float on top of the debris. It inflates to the size of an enormous backpack in two seconds but is not obtrusive when you are wearing it. Supposedly, 30 to 40 people claim it has saved their lives in Europe. It really gets to the heart of the matter of what saves people, and that is it keeps people from getting buried.
    What do they cost?
    Around $500. They may be coming on in the US market soon.
    Why do people tempt fate?
    The rewards are huge. When you pull off a good ski descent or climb or doing something radical on a snowboard or snowmachine, it adds to your internal resume. Everyone is willing to take some level of risk. A lot of people in the backcountry have a fairly high tolerance of risk.
    Final thoughts?
    Being somebody who has become a senior citizen in the avalanche game, I would like to retire from the this business in a few years feeling really good about how I spent my 30-odd years trying to forecast and teach people personal safety

    How to help
    The Colorado Avalanche Information Center is a program of the Colorado Geological Survey and is funded mostly through grants and donations.
    You can help by becoming a member of the Friend of the Center Program. For $30 you receive The Beacon newsletter, the Avalanche Wise booklet and a morning forecast by e-mail. For $45, you receive the above plus an afternoon forecast by e-mail
    To join or for more information about the program or the center, call Knox Williams, CAIC director, at (303) 499-9650, fax him at (303) 499-9618 or write to Colorado Avalanche Information Center, 325 Broadway St. WS No. 1, Boulder, CO 80303-3337.
    Did you know?
n Loud noises do not trigger avalanches.
n In 95 percent of all avalanche accidents, the avalanche is triggered by by the victim or someone in the victim's party.
n An average-sized dry avalanche travels 60 to 80 mph and reach speeds of 40 mph in about 4 seconds. Wet avalanches travel much slower, about 20 mph.
n Dry slab avalanches account for almost all avalanche fatalities. These occur when cohesive snow on top slides on top of a weaker snow layer.
n Wind is the most common cause of avalanches. It can deposit snow 10 times faster than snow falling from storms.
n Nearly one-third of avalanche victims die from trauma from hitting trees and rocks on the way down.
n The latest statistics show that 93 percent of avalanche victims that survive the ride are still alive after 15 minutes, but then the numbers drop catastrophically. After 45 minutes, only 8 percent are still alive.
n On average, Colorado is home to one-third of the country's annual avalanche fatalities.
n Since 1950, avalanches have caused more fatalities than any other natural disaster in Colorado.
n A record 33 people lost their lives to avalanches in the United States last winter. Colorado had only four.
n About 2,000 avalanches are reported to the avalanche center in Colorado in an average winter. More than 80 percent of these occur during or just after large snowstorms.
n About 90 percent of all avalanches start on slopes of 30 degrees to 45 degrees and 98 percent occur on slopes of between 25 degrees and 50 degrees. Avalanches release most often on slopes above timberline that face away from prevailing winds where leeward slopes collect snow blowing from the windward sides of ridges.
Other resources
   BOOKS
n "Avalanche Wise: Your Guide to Avalanche Safety in Colorado" - This Colorado Geological Survey pocket-sized booklet will help you stay save while playing in Colorado's backcountry. Written by Knox Williams and Dale Atkins, 1999. Cost $2.50. Check your local book store, outdoor store or www.geosurvey.state.co.us
n "The Snowy Torrents" - This Colorado Geological Survey publication is the latest compilation of avalanche accidents in the United States from 1980-1986. Written by Nick Logan and Dale Atkins, 1996. Cost is $16. Check your local book store, outdoor store or www.geosurvey.state.co.us
n "The Avalanche Book" - This 1992 revised edition covers it all from lore, science, protection, survival and legal issues surrounding liability when avalanches strike. Written by Knox Williams and Betsy Armstrong. Cost is $17.00. Check your local book store, outdoor store or www.geosurvey.state.co.us
n "Snow Sense: A Guide to Evaluating Snow Avalanche Hazard'' -Two of North America's best avalanche instructors, Jill Fedston and Doug Feasler, team up to give it all to you. Cost is $8.95. Check your local book store, outdoor store or www.amazon.com
n "Avalanche Safety: For Skiers and Climbers'' - This book written by Tony Daffern is a thoroughly illustrated manual stressing how to avoid avalanche hazards. Cost is $16.95. Check your local book store, outdoor store or www.amazon.com
   VIDEO
n Avalanche Rescue Beacons: A Race Against Time - This 38-minute video is designed to teach winter recreationists how to effectively search for and rescue an avalanche victim. Script written by Dale Atkins, 1995. Cost is $25.
n Riding Safely in Avalanche Country -Produced by the Forest Service National Avalanche Center. It's a very good snowmobile-oriented, basic avalanche awareness video. Cost is $15.95. Call (208) 726-4333 to order.
n Winning the Avalanche Game - Produced by the Utah Avalanche Center, the avalanche awareness and snow safety information is top-notch and exactly what you want to know before going out to play in the den of the avalanche dragon. Cost is $29.95. Call the Utah Avalanche Center (801) 524-5304.
n Avalanche Awareness: A Question of Balance - Produced by some of the country's leading avalanche experts like Betsy Armstrong and Knox Williams. This is an excellent avalanche awareness video that gives you real tools to use in the backcountry. Find it www.fogdog.com
   WEB SITES
n www.geosurvey.state.co.us - Home of the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, the oldest such center in the country. Site includes loads of information. NOTE: The address has changed from www.caic.state.co.us.
n www.avalanche.org - Home of West Wide Avalanche Network that is a grab bag of useful information and links.
    Avalanche hotline
    The Colorado Avalanche Information Center offers free avalanche hotline numbers that give you up-do-date information on mountain weather, snow and avalanche conditions. Fort Collins, 970-482-0457
    Clinics
n 7 p.m., Nov. 26, Eastern Mountain Sports, 101 E. Foothills Parkway. Eric Alsott will present a slide show and talk about having the proper equipment and techniques to avoid becoming an avalanche victim. Free. Information: EMS, 970-223-6511.
n 7:30 p.m., Dec. 4, Mountain Shop, 632 S. Mason St. Knox Williams, director of the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, will give a talk on how to keep you from becoming an avalanche victim. Free. Information: Mountain Shop, 970-493-5720.
n 7 p.m., Dec. 4, REI, 4025 S. College Ave Colorado Mountain School staff will be on hand to educate you on all facets of avalanche awareness. Free. Information: REI, 970-223-0123.
n Jan. 17, 19, Emergency Operation Center, 1303 N. Shields St. Larimer County Search and Rescue will lead this classroom and field course covering all facets of avalanche awareness. Cost is $50. Pre-registration deadline is Jan. 13. Limited to 20 participants. Information: David Hake, 970-498-0664.
n Jan. 23, 26, Mountain Shop, 632 S. Mason St. Knox Williams, director of the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, will lead this classroom and field study course covering snow science, terrain evaluation and route finding. Cost is $40. Pre-registration is required. Information: Mountain Shop, 970-493-5720.
    International avalanche condition scale
    LOW - Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely. Generally, stable snow; isolated areas of instability. Travel is generally safe. Normal caution advised.
    MODERATE - Natural avalanches unlikely. Human triggered avalanches possible. Unstable slabs possible on steep terrain. Use caution in steeper terrain on certain aspects.
    CONSIDERABLE - Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches probable. Unstable slabs probable on steep terrain. Be more cautious in steeper terrain. Be aware of potentially dangerous areas of unstable snow.
    HIGH - Natural and human triggered avalanches likely. Unstable slabs likely on a variety of aspects and slope angles. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Safest travel on windward ridges or lower angle slopes without steeper terrain above.
    EXTREME - Widespread natural or human triggered avalanches certain. Extremely unstable slabs on most aspects and slope angles. Large destructive avalanches possible. Travel in avalanche terrain should be avoided and travel confined to low angle terrain well away from avalanche path runouts.

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